Marshalling existing biodiversity data to evaluate biodiversity status and trends in planning exercises
Climate Change, conservation, Geographic range, Habitat suitability, niche modelling
A thorough understanding of biodiversity sta- tus and trends through time is necessary for decision- making at regional, national, and subnational levels. Information readily available in databases allows for development of scenarios of species distribution in relation to habitat changes. Existing species occurrence data are biased towards some taxonomic groups (espe- cially vertebrates), and are more complete for Europe and North America than for the rest of the world. We outline a procedure for development of such biodiversity scenarios using available data on species distribution derived from primary biodiversity data and habitat conditions, and analytical software, which allows esti- mation of species’ distributions, and forecasting of likely effects of various agents of change on the distribution and status of the same species. Such approaches can translate into improved knowledge for countries regarding the 2010 Biodiversity Target of reducing sig- nificantly the rate of biodiversity loss—indeed, using methodologies such as those illustrated herein, many countries should be capable of analyzing trends of change for at least part of their biodiversity. Sources of errors that are present in primary biodiversity data and that can affect projections are discussed.