Range Expansion of Ambrosia artemisiifolia in Europe Is Promoted by Climate Change
Ambrosia artemisiifolia L., native to North America, is a problematic invasive species, because of its highly allergenic pollen.Te species is expected to expand its range due to climate change. By means of ecological niche modelling (ENM), we predict habitat suitability for A. artemisiifolia in Europe under current and future climatic conditions.Overall, we compared the performance and results of 16 algorithms commonly applied in ENM. As occurrence records of invasive species may be dominated by sampling bias,wealsouseddatafromthe native range. To assess thequality of themodelling approaches we assembledanewmap of current occurrences of A. artemisiifolia in Europe. Our results show that ENM yields a good estimation of the potential range of A. artemisiifolia in Europe only when using theNorth American data. A strong sampling bias in the European Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) data for A. artemisiifolia causes unrealistic results.Using theNorthAmerican data reflects the realized European distribution very well. All models predict an enlargement and a northwards shiſt of potential range in Central and Northern Europe during the next decades. Climate warming will lead to an increase and northwards shiſt of A. artemisiifolia in Europe.